| # | Ticker | Name | Side | Theme | Strategy | Weight | Entry | Current | P&L (%) | P&L ($K) | Conviction | AI Rationale (Summary) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ASML | ASML Holding | LONG | CORE | S-102 | 6.8% | $724.10 | $812.50 | +12.2% | +$5,812 | 9.2/10 | EUV/High-NA backlog de-risks multi-year AI wafer demand. Pricing power intact. |
| 2 | SAP | SAP SE | LONG | CORE | S-041 | 4.2% | $168.20 | $178.45 | +6.1% | +$1,234 | 8.7/10 | Cloud ERP mix improving; AI copilots drive ARPU uplift with low churn. |
| 3 | NVO | Novo Nordisk | LONG | CORE | S-041 | 5.4% | $112.10 | $122.30 | +9.1% | +$2,371 | 8.4/10 | GLP-1 demand resilient; capacity expansion supports sustained volume growth. |
| 4 | SIE | Siemens AG | LONG | TACTICAL | S-102 | 3.8% | $176.50 | $207.10 | +17.3% | +$3,168 | 8.1/10 | Automation + electrification backlog. Data-center capex tailwind via grids. |
| 5 | SU | Schneider Electric | LONG | CORE | S-102 | 3.6% | $192.00 | $208.20 | +8.5% | +$1,474 | 8.5/10 | Data center power/cooling + grid efficiency. Pricing > cost inflation. |
| 6 | IFX | Infineon Tech | LONG | TACTICAL | S-102 | 3.2% | $34.40 | $44.90 | +30.5% | +$4,339 | 7.8/10 | Power semis for electrification + AI energy efficiency. Inventory cycle turning. |
| 7 | STM | STMicroelectronics | LONG | CORE | S-102 | 4.6% | $42.80 | $47.30 | +10.5% | +$2,468 | 8.0/10 | Auto + industrial semis mix improves; AI edge demand supports margin floor. |
| 8 | ROG | Roche Holding | LONG | TACTICAL | S-041 | 2.4% | $252.10 | $297.40 | +17.9% | +$2,068 | 7.4/10 | Diagnostics + oncology pipeline improvements; defensive ballast vs AI volatility. |
| 9 | TEP | Teleperformance | SHORT | TACTICAL | S-208 | -3.4% | $162.00 | $155.40 | +4.1% | +$672 | 7.2/10 | AI agents compress BPO hours. Pricing pressure + multiple compression risk. |
| 10 | KER | Kering | SHORT | HEDGE | S-208 | -2.8% | $418.80 | $372.10 | +11.1% | +$1,472 | 7.6/10 | China luxury demand normalizing; margin deleverage risk into weak comps. |
| 11 | PUM | Puma SE | SHORT | TACTICAL | S-208 | -2.2% | $78.40 | $74.10 | +5.5% | +$582 | 6.8/10 | Promo intensity rising; inventory risk + weaker pricing vs premium peers. |
| 12 | ATOS | Atos SE | SHORT | TACTICAL | S-208 | -2.6% | $2.82 | $2.64 | +6.6% | +$826 | 7.0/10 | Legacy IT services under structural pressure; refinancing risk remains elevated. |
| 13 | AZN | AstraZeneca | LONG | CORE | S-041 | 2.8% | $114.60 | $121.30 | +5.8% | +$714 | 7.9/10 | Oncology/respiratory pipeline derisks growth; strong cash conversion. |
| 14 | AIR | Airbus SE | LONG | TACTICAL | S-041 | 3.4% | $142.20 | $153.40 | +7.8% | +$1,278 | 7.6/10 | Backlog visibility + production ramp. Beneficiary of supply chain normalization. |
| 15 | ZAL | Zalando | SHORT | TACTICAL | S-208 | -1.8% | $26.40 | $24.80 | +6.1% | +$528 | 6.5/10 | Demand elasticity high; marketing spend rising; margin compression risk persists. |
| Entry Date | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Entry Price | $724.10 |
| Current Price | $812.50 |
| Position Size | 6.8% of NAV |
| Notional | $32.8M |
| P&L | +$5,812K (+12.2%) |
| Conviction | 9.2 / 10 |
| Days Held | 18 |
ASML represents a structural bottleneck in the AI compute supply chain. EUV lithography tools are irreplaceable for advanced node production. Composite signal strength: 8.7/10. Generated by S-102 (AI Infra Demand).
Three independent data sources detected converging signals: (1) Alt-data shipments +18% YoY vs consensus +12%, (2) NLP sentiment index +34% (30D MA), (3) Earnings revisions +3.2% (30D). Each signal individually significant (p<0.05).
ASML matches S-102 pattern: upstream demand signals (supplier checks) → shipment acceleration → margin expansion → revision momentum. Historical pattern match: 87% similarity to prior successful signals in semicap space.
Position size calculated: base signal (9.2/10 conviction) × portfolio constraints × correlation adjustment = 6.8% NAV. Capped at 7.0% soft limit to maintain diversification. Risk contribution: $412K VaR (within limits).
All risk gates passed: beta impact +0.08 (target: ±0.50), sector concentration 22.4% (limit: 40%), single name 6.8% (limit: 10%), liquidity 0.8% ADV (limit: 2%). Strategy linkage validated: S-102 OOS Sharpe 1.92 supports signal quality.
| Metric | Value | Threshold | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Signal Strength | 8.7 / 10 | ≥ 7.5 | ✓ PASS |
| Signal Convergence Score | 0.89 | ≥ 0.75 | ✓ PASS |
| Pattern Match Confidence | 87% | ≥ 80% | ✓ PASS |
| Statistical Significance | p < 0.001 | ≤ 0.05 | ✓ PASS |
| Strategy OOS Sharpe | 1.92 | ≥ 1.2 | ✓ PASS |
| Metric | Current | 1Y Forecast | 3Y Forecast | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (€B) | €32.1 | €38.4 | €52.8 | Alt-data + consensus |
| EBITDA Margin | 38.2% | 40.1% | 42.5% | Pricing power model |
| EPS (€) | €21.4 | €26.8 | €38.2 | Revisions momentum |
| FCF Yield | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | Cash flow model |
| Scenario | Probability | 12M Target | Expected Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case (backlog expansion) | 55% | $850 | +4.6% |
| Bull Case (High-NA acceleration) | 30% | $920 | +13.2% |
| Bear Case (demand normalization) | 15% | $780 | -4.0% |
| Expected Value | 100% | $856 | +5.2% |
| Metric | ASML | Peer Median | Discount/Premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (NTM) | 28.4x | 31.2x | -9% discount |
| EV/Sales | 8.2x | 8.1x | +1% inline |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.5x | 24.8x | -13% discount |
| FCF Yield | 2.8% | 2.1% | +33% premium |
Weighted Composite: Signals are weighted by historical predictive power: Alt-data (40%), NLP (30%), Revisions (25%), Valuation (5%). Composite score = 8.7/10.
Temporal Alignment: All signals normalized to 30-day lookback window. Lag adjustments applied: shipments (T-15), NLP (T-0), revisions (T-5), valuation (T-1).
Cross-Validation: Signal independence confirmed (correlation <0.3 between sources). Bootstrap resampling shows 94% CI excludes zero.
| Risk Factor | Severity | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| Cyclicality (semicon) | Medium | Backlog visibility de-risks |
| Concentration (top customer) | Low | Diversified customer base |
| Technology disruption | Low | EUV moat, High-NA transition |
| Geopolitical (China) | Medium | Export controls priced in |
| Execution risk (High-NA) | Low | Strong R&D track record |
| Scenario | Price Impact | P&L Impact | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI capex -30% cut | -18% | -$5.9M | 15% |
| High-NA delay 6M | -8% | -$2.6M | 20% |
| China export ban expansion | -12% | -$3.9M | 10% |
| Supply chain normalization | +5% | +$1.6M | 55% |
| Metric | Actual | Benchmark | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avg Slippage | -2.1 bps | 5.0 bps | ✓ Outperform |
| Implementation Shortfall | +1.8 bps | 15.0 bps | ✓ Outperform |
| Fill Rate | 98.7% | 95.0% | ✓ Outperform |
| Time to Fill | 3h 42m | 30 min | ● Acceptable |
| VWAP vs Arrival | +1.2 bps | 0.0 bps | ✓ Outperform |
Pattern Match: ASML perfectly matches S-102's core pattern: upstream demand signals (supplier checks) → shipment acceleration → margin expansion → revision momentum. Historical pattern similarity: 87%.
Signal Quality: All four signal sources (alt-data, NLP, revisions, valuation) align with strategy requirements. Composite score 8.7/10 exceeds strategy threshold of 7.5.
Strategy Performance: S-102 has OOS Sharpe of 1.92, supporting this signal quality. Strategy has generated +$4.86M MTD P&L with 21 trades in last 7 days.
| Parameter | Value | Applied to ASML |
|---|---|---|
| Min Signal Strength | ≥ 7.5 | 8.7 ✓ |
| Max Position Size | 10% NAV | 6.8% ✓ |
| Sector Cap | 40% | 22.4% ✓ |
| Turnover Budget | 22% / day | 0.8% ADV ✓ |
| Beta Band | 0.30-0.50 | +0.08 impact ✓ |
| Entry Date | Jan 05, 2026 |
| Entry Price | $162.00 |
| Current Price | $155.40 |
| Position Size | -3.4% of NAV |
| Notional | $16.4M |
| P&L | +$672K (+4.1%) |
| Conviction | 7.2 / 10 |
| Days Held | 14 |
Teleperformance operates in a labor-intensive BPO model vulnerable to AI agent displacement. Composite signal strength: 7.2/10. Generated by S-208 (Services Displacement).
Four independent negative signals detected: (1) NLP shows 23% increase in "AI automation" mentions, (2) Labor metrics show job postings down 18%, (3) Margins compressed 180bps YoY, (4) Options flow shows elevated put/call ratio 1.82. All signals individually significant (p<0.05).
TEP matches S-208 pattern: high labor intensity (85% of costs) + low pricing power + AI automation threat → margin compression → negative revisions. Historical pattern match: 82% similarity to prior successful shorts in services sector.
Short size calculated: base signal (7.2/10 conviction) × borrow constraints × squeeze risk adjustment = 3.4% NAV. Capped due to: (1) borrow cost 42bps (near 80bps threshold), (2) squeeze risk flagged (short interest 8.2% rising), (3) tactical sleeve allocation.
All risk gates passed: beta impact -0.12 (target: ±0.50), borrow cost 42bps (limit: 80bps), single name 3.4% (limit: 10%), liquidity 1.2% ADV (limit: 2%). Squeeze risk monitored daily. Strategy linkage validated: S-208 OOS Sharpe 1.34 supports signal quality.
| Metric | Value | Threshold | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Signal Strength | 7.2 / 10 | ≥ 7.0 | ✓ PASS |
| Signal Convergence Score | 0.84 | ≥ 0.75 | ✓ PASS |
| Pattern Match Confidence | 82% | ≥ 80% | ✓ PASS |
| Statistical Significance | p < 0.001 | ≤ 0.05 | ✓ PASS |
| Strategy OOS Sharpe | 1.34 | ≥ 1.2 | ✓ PASS |
| Metric | Current | 1Y Forecast | 3Y Forecast | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (€B) | €7.2 | €6.8 | €5.9 | Demand erosion model |
| EBITDA Margin | 12.4% | 10.6% | 8.2% | Margin compression model |
| EPS (€) | €4.2 | €3.1 | €1.8 | Revisions momentum |
| FCF Yield | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.4% | Cash flow model |
| Scenario | Probability | 12M Target | Expected Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case (gradual displacement) | 50% | $148 | +8.6% |
| Bear Case (rapid AI adoption) | 35% | $135 | +16.7% |
| Bull Case (stabilization) | 15% | $170 | -4.9% |
| Expected Value | 100% | $145 | +10.5% |
Weighted Composite: Signals are weighted by historical predictive power: NLP (35%), Labor metrics (30%), Fundamentals (25%), Options (10%). Composite score = 7.2/10.
Temporal Alignment: All signals normalized to 30-day lookback window. Lag adjustments applied: NLP (T-0), labor (T-5), fundamentals (T-10), options (T-0).
Cross-Validation: Signal independence confirmed (correlation <0.25 between sources). Bootstrap resampling shows 91% CI excludes zero.
| Risk Factor | Severity | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| Squeeze Risk | Medium | Short interest monitored, stop-loss at $165 |
| Borrow Cost Spike | Medium | Auto-reduce if exceeds 80bps |
| AI Adoption Slows | Low | Multiple signals confirm trend |
| Management Response | Low | Structural pressure, not cyclical |
| Short Interest Limit | Low | Currently 8.2%, limit 15% |
| Scenario | Price Impact | P&L Impact | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short squeeze (+20%) | +20% | -$3.3M | 10% |
| AI adoption accelerates | -15% | +$2.5M | 35% |
| Borrow cost spikes to 120bps | +5% | -$820K | 15% |
| Gradual displacement | -8% | +$1.3M | 50% |
| Metric | Actual | Benchmark | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avg Slippage | -1.4 bps | 5.0 bps | ✓ Outperform |
| Borrow Cost | 42 bps | 80 bps | ✓ Within Budget |
| Fill Rate | 97.2% | 95.0% | ✓ Outperform |
| Locate Confirmation | 100% | 100% | ✓ Pass |
Pattern Match: TEP perfectly matches S-208's core pattern: high labor intensity (85% of costs) + low pricing power + AI automation threat → margin compression → negative revisions. Historical pattern similarity: 82%.
Signal Quality: All four signal sources (NLP, labor metrics, fundamentals, options) align with strategy requirements. Composite score 7.2/10 exceeds strategy threshold of 7.0.
Strategy Performance: S-208 has OOS Sharpe of 1.34, supporting this signal quality. Strategy has generated +$0.62M MTD P&L with 9 trades in last 7 days.
| Parameter | Value | Applied to TEP |
|---|---|---|
| Min Signal Strength | ≥ 7.0 | 7.2 ✓ |
| Max Position Size | 10% NAV | 3.4% ✓ |
| Borrow Cost Limit | ≤ 80 bps | 42 bps ✓ |
| Short Interest Limit | ≤ 15% | 8.2% ✓ |
| Squeeze Risk Monitor | Enabled | MONITOR |
| Entry Date | Dec 18, 2026 |
| Entry Price | $168.20 |
| Current Price | $178.45 |
| Position Size | 4.2% of NAV |
| Notional | $20.3M |
| P&L | +$1,234K (+6.1%) |
| Conviction | 8.7 / 10 |
| Days Held | 32 |
SAP represents a high-quality software company with improving fundamentals and strong AI positioning. Quality + revisions composite signal: 8.7/10. Generated by S-041 (Quality × Revisions).
Four independent positive signals detected: (1) Quality score +1.8 (top decile), (2) Revisions momentum +4.1% (30D), (3) AI copilot adoption mentions +67% (QoQ), (4) Valuation discount 13% vs 5Y median. Each signal individually significant (p<0.05).
SAP matches S-041 pattern: high quality (ROIC 18.2%, FCF 89%) + positive revisions (+4.1%) → alpha generation with lower drawdown. Historical pattern match: 91% similarity to prior successful quality+momentum signals.
Position size calculated: base signal (8.7/10 conviction) × quality defensive factor × correlation adjustment = 4.2% NAV. Could be larger but balanced for diversification. Risk contribution: $284K VaR (within limits).
All risk gates passed: beta impact +0.06 (target: ±0.50), sector concentration 22.4% (limit: 40%), single name 4.2% (limit: 10%), liquidity 0.6% ADV (limit: 2%). Strategy linkage validated: S-041 OOS Sharpe 1.58 supports signal quality.
| Metric | Value | Threshold | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Signal Strength | 8.7 / 10 | ≥ 7.5 | ✓ PASS |
| Signal Convergence Score | 0.92 | ≥ 0.75 | ✓ PASS |
| Pattern Match Confidence | 91% | ≥ 80% | ✓ PASS |
| Statistical Significance | p < 0.001 | ≤ 0.05 | ✓ PASS |
| Strategy OOS Sharpe | 1.58 | ≥ 1.2 | ✓ PASS |
| Metric | Current | 1Y Forecast | 3Y Forecast | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (€B) | €34.2 | €38.8 | €48.2 | Cloud ARR model |
| Cloud ARR Growth | +24% YoY | +28% YoY | +32% YoY | Backlog + AI copilot |
| EBITDA Margin | 32.4% | 34.8% | 37.2% | Scale + mix model |
| EPS (€) | €5.8 | €6.9 | €8.4 | Revisions momentum |
| FCF Yield | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | Cash flow model |
| Scenario | Probability | 12M Target | Expected Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case (cloud acceleration) | 60% | $185 | +3.7% |
| Bull Case (AI copilot adoption) | 25% | $195 | +9.3% |
| Bear Case (macro slowdown) | 15% | $170 | -4.7% |
| Expected Value | 100% | $186 | +4.2% |
| Metric | SAP | Peer Median | Discount/Premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (NTM) | 24.8x | 28.4x | -13% discount |
| EV/Sales | 6.2x | 7.1x | -13% discount |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.1x | 22.8x | -16% discount |
| FCF Yield | 4.1% | 2.8% | +46% premium |
Weighted Composite: Signals are weighted by historical predictive power: Quality (40%), Revisions (35%), NLP (20%), Valuation (5%). Composite score = 8.7/10.
Temporal Alignment: All signals normalized to 30-day lookback window. Lag adjustments applied: quality (T-1), revisions (T-5), NLP (T-0), valuation (T-1).
Cross-Validation: Signal independence confirmed (correlation <0.2 between sources). Bootstrap resampling shows 96% CI excludes zero.
| Risk Factor | Severity | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| Cloud transition execution | Low | Strong execution track record |
| Competitive pressure | Low | ERP moat, switching costs |
| Macro slowdown | Medium | Defensive quality characteristics |
| AI copilot adoption risk | Low | Early adoption, strong pipeline |
| Valuation re-rating | Low | Already at discount |
| Scenario | Price Impact | P&L Impact | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macro slowdown (-15% market) | -8% | -$1.6M | 15% |
| Cloud transition stalls | -12% | -$2.4M | 10% |
| AI copilot adoption accelerates | +12% | +$2.4M | 25% |
| Base case (steady growth) | +4% | +$810K | 60% |
| Metric | Actual | Benchmark | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avg Slippage | -1.8 bps | 5.0 bps | ✓ Outperform |
| Implementation Shortfall | +0.9 bps | 15.0 bps | ✓ Outperform |
| Fill Rate | 99.1% | 95.0% | ✓ Outperform |
| Time to Fill | 5h 12m | 30 min | ● Acceptable |
| VWAP vs Arrival | +0.8 bps | 0.0 bps | ✓ Outperform |
Pattern Match: SAP perfectly matches S-041's core pattern: high quality (ROIC 18.2%, FCF 89%) + positive revisions (+4.1%) → alpha generation with lower drawdown. Historical pattern similarity: 91%.
Signal Quality: All four signal sources (quality, revisions, NLP, valuation) align with strategy requirements. Composite score 8.7/10 exceeds strategy threshold of 7.5.
Strategy Performance: S-041 has OOS Sharpe of 1.58, supporting this signal quality. Strategy has generated +$2.94M MTD P&L with 14 trades in last 7 days.
| Parameter | Value | Applied to SAP |
|---|---|---|
| Min Signal Strength | ≥ 7.5 | 8.7 ✓ |
| Min Quality z-score | ≥ +1.5 | +1.8 ✓ |
| Min Revisions Momentum | ≥ +2.0% | +4.1% ✓ |
| Max Position Size | 10% NAV | 4.2% ✓ |
| Sector Cap | 40% | 22.4% ✓ |
| Entry Date | Dec 20, 2025 |
| Entry Price | $112.10 |
| Current Price | $122.30 |
| Position Size | 5.4% of NAV |
| P&L | +$2,371K (+9.1%) |
| Conviction | 8.4 / 10 |
Primary Thesis: GLP-1 demand remains structurally strong with capacity expansion supporting sustained volume growth. Quality metrics (ROIC 28%, FCF conversion 92%) are exceptional. Revisions momentum +5.2% (30D) driven by capacity announcements and market expansion.
Strategy Linkage: Generated by S-041 (Quality × Revisions). NVO fits: quality z-score +2.1 (top 5%), revisions +5.2%, defensive characteristics with low correlation to tech/AI names.
| Entry Date | Jan 10, 2026 |
| Entry Price | $176.50 |
| Current Price | $207.10 |
| Position Size | 3.8% of NAV |
| P&L | +$3,168K (+17.3%) |
| Conviction | 8.1 / 10 |
Primary Thesis: Automation + electrification backlog expansion. Data-center capex tailwind via grid infrastructure. Digital factory solutions driving margin expansion. Backlog visibility strong through 2027.
Strategy Linkage: Generated by S-102 (AI Infra Demand). SIE fits: automation demand signals → backlog acceleration → margin expansion. Alt-data shows factory automation orders up 22% YoY.
| Entry Date | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Entry Price | $192.00 |
| Current Price | $208.20 |
| Position Size | 3.6% of NAV |
| P&L | +$1,474K (+8.5%) |
| Conviction | 8.5 / 10 |
Primary Thesis: Data center power/cooling + grid efficiency solutions. Pricing power exceeds cost inflation. AI data center buildout drives structural demand. Energy management software margins expanding.
Strategy Linkage: Generated by S-102 (AI Infra Demand). SU fits: data center capex signals → power infrastructure demand → margin expansion. Supplier data shows data center orders up 28% YoY.
| Entry Date | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Entry Price | $34.40 |
| Current Price | $44.90 |
| Position Size | 3.2% of NAV |
| P&L | +$4,339K (+30.5%) |
| Conviction | 7.8 / 10 |
Primary Thesis: Power semis for electrification + AI energy efficiency. Inventory cycle turning positive. Automotive power modules demand accelerating. AI data center power efficiency drives IGBT demand.
Strategy Linkage: Generated by S-102 (AI Infra Demand). IFX fits: power semiconductor demand signals → inventory normalization → margin recovery. Supplier checks show power module orders accelerating.
| Entry Date | Jan 08, 2026 |
| Entry Price | $42.80 |
| Current Price | $47.30 |
| Position Size | 4.6% of NAV |
| P&L | +$2,468K (+10.5%) |
| Conviction | 8.0 / 10 |
Primary Thesis: Auto + industrial semis mix improving. AI edge demand supports margin floor. Microcontroller demand resilient. Power management ICs benefiting from electrification.
Strategy Linkage: Generated by S-102 (AI Infra Demand). STM fits: automotive/industrial demand signals → mix improvement → margin expansion. Supplier data shows MCU orders stable, PMIC orders up.
| Entry Date | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Entry Price | $252.10 |
| Current Price | $297.40 |
| Position Size | 2.4% of NAV |
| P&L | +$2,068K (+17.9%) |
| Conviction | 7.4 / 10 |
Primary Thesis: Diagnostics + oncology pipeline improvements. Defensive ballast vs AI volatility. Quality metrics strong (ROIC 24%). Revisions momentum +3.8% (30D) on pipeline updates.
Strategy Linkage: Generated by S-041 (Quality × Revisions). ROG fits: quality z-score +1.6, revisions +3.8%, low correlation to tech names provides portfolio diversification.
| Entry Date | Jan 02, 2026 |
| Entry Price | $418.80 |
| Current Price | $372.10 |
| Position Size | -2.8% of NAV |
| P&L | +$1,472K (+11.1%) |
| Conviction | 7.6 / 10 |
Primary Thesis: China luxury demand normalizing. Margin deleverage risk into weak comps. Valuation stretched vs historical. Consumer sentiment in China weakening on luxury goods.
Strategy Linkage: Generated by S-208 (Services Displacement) as hedge position. KER fits: demand elasticity high, margin compression risk, valuation stretched. Used as portfolio hedge vs luxury/consumer exposure.
| Entry Date | Jan 08, 2026 |
| Entry Price | $78.40 |
| Current Price | $74.10 |
| Position Size | -2.2% of NAV |
| P&L | +$582K (+5.5%) |
| Conviction | 6.8 / 10 |
Primary Thesis: Promo intensity rising. Inventory risk + weaker pricing vs premium peers. Market share pressure from Nike/Adidas. Margin compression accelerating.
Strategy Linkage: Generated by S-208 (Services Displacement) as tactical short. PUM fits: pricing power declining, inventory building, competitive pressure increasing. Lower conviction tactical position.
| Entry Date | Dec 30, 2025 |
| Entry Price | $2.82 |
| Current Price | $2.64 |
| Position Size | -2.6% of NAV |
| P&L | +$826K (+6.6%) |
| Conviction | 7.0 / 10 |
Primary Thesis: Legacy IT services under structural pressure. Refinancing risk remains elevated. Cloud migration compressing traditional IT services margins. Debt burden high relative to cash flow.
Strategy Linkage: Generated by S-208 (Services Displacement). ATOS fits: legacy IT services model, structural pressure from cloud/AI, refinancing risk, margin compression accelerating.
| Entry Date | Jan 05, 2026 |
| Entry Price | $114.60 |
| Current Price | $121.30 |
| Position Size | 2.8% of NAV |
| P&L | +$714K (+5.8%) |
| Conviction | 7.9 / 10 |
Primary Thesis: Oncology/respiratory pipeline derisks growth. Strong cash conversion. Quality metrics solid (ROIC 22%). Revisions momentum +3.5% (30D) on pipeline updates.
Strategy Linkage: Generated by S-041 (Quality × Revisions). AZN fits: quality z-score +1.7, revisions +3.5%, defensive characteristics, low correlation to tech names.
| Entry Date | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Entry Price | $142.20 |
| Current Price | $153.40 |
| Position Size | 3.4% of NAV |
| P&L | +$1,278K (+7.8%) |
| Conviction | 7.6 / 10 |
Primary Thesis: Backlog visibility + production ramp. Beneficiary of supply chain normalization. Quality metrics improving (ROIC 18%). Revisions momentum +4.2% (30D) on delivery acceleration.
Strategy Linkage: Generated by S-041 (Quality × Revisions). AIR fits: quality z-score +1.4, revisions +4.2%, backlog de-risks earnings, supply chain normalization supports margin expansion.
| Entry Date | Jan 06, 2026 |
| Entry Price | $26.40 |
| Current Price | $24.80 |
| Position Size | -1.8% of NAV |
| P&L | +$528K (+6.1%) |
| Conviction | 6.5 / 10 |
Primary Thesis: Demand elasticity high. Marketing spend rising. Margin compression risk persists. Competitive pressure from Amazon/Shein. Customer acquisition costs increasing.
Strategy Linkage: Generated by S-208 (Services Displacement) as tactical short. ZAL fits: pricing power declining, margin compression, high customer acquisition costs, competitive pressure increasing.